
WEEKEND WAGER Best FA Cup bets from scorned England star with point to prove to the tie destined for penalty shootout
With the international break now behind us, it’s time to dive back into the excitement of domestic football, with the FA Cup quarter-finals providing some intriguing matchups this weekend. The biggest talking points are players with something to prove, particularly those who were snubbed by England. We take a closer look at the best-value bets for this weekend, featuring insight from top broadcaster Toni Afoke, Betfair expert Sam Rosbottom, and our own deputy head of sport, Dean Scoggins.
Morgan Gibbs-White: A Scorned Star Ready to Prove Himself
A Quick Look at Morgan Gibbs-White’s Career
Morgan Gibbs-White has been one of the standout players for Nottingham Forest this season, but despite his excellent form, he was left out of Gareth Southgate’s most recent England squad. This snub is likely to have fired up the young midfielder, and he will be keen to prove his worth, especially with his current club in the heat of a crucial FA Cup quarter-final clash against Brighton.
Best Bet: Two Shots on Target at 11/2
Dean Scoggins, one of our betting experts, has highlighted Gibbs-White as a player to watch in this weekend’s action. He predicts that Gibbs-White, with a point to prove, will be involved in the thick of the action.
Why this bet makes sense is simple: although Gibbs-White averages just under one shot per game this season, cup ties tend to be more open affairs. He’ll have more opportunities, whether from free-kicks, long-range efforts, or open play, to make his mark. With his added motivation, he could well exceed his usual shot count.
A Snubbed Player with Extra Motivation
It’s important to note that players like Gibbs-White, who are overlooked for national duty, often come back with a vengeance. This added motivation could make him a key player for Nottingham Forest against a solid Brighton side. Whether he’s scoring or providing assists, he will be a crucial part of Forest’s attack, and betting on him to have two shots on target at 11/2 could offer great value.
Forest to Win on Penalties: The Underdog’s Strong Penalty Record
Forest’s Resilience in Cup Shootouts
Toni Afoke believes that Nottingham Forest, despite not being the favorites for this tie, have a good chance of winning the match via penalties. Forest’s recent FA Cup history shows that they are not just resilient during normal play but have also proven themselves in the high-pressure situation of penalty shootouts.
Why Forest Could Win on Penalties
Forest has reached a point in the competition where they are playing with confidence, and penalty shootouts could be their strong suit. In their last five FA Cup ties, three of them have gone to penalties, with Forest coming out victorious on each occasion. Their discipline and composure in these situations, compared to Brighton’s recent struggles in shootouts—especially their loss to Manchester United in 2022-23—make Forest’s chances even more appealing.
With this in mind, Afoke has put forward the odds of 11/1 for Forest to win on penalties. While it’s a bold bet, it reflects their ability to thrive under pressure and could provide great returns for those looking for something outside the conventional match-winner market.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest: The Tactical Battle
Key Players to Watch
In addition to Morgan Gibbs-White, there are several other players in this tie who could make an impact. Brighton’s attacking trio of Mitoma, March, and Ferguson will need to create opportunities to break down Forest’s defense, while Forest will rely on the likes of Taiwo Awoniyi and Brennan Johnson for counter-attacks. Both sides have pace and flair, and this game promises to be high-paced.
The Match That Could Go All the Way
If the game remains tight, it’s quite possible that this match could head to extra time and penalties. Both teams have shown resilience in tough matches, and this quarter-final tie might be destined for an exciting finish. For those betting on a nail-biting conclusion, betting on a penalty shootout could offer significant returns.
Bournemouth vs Manchester City: A Clash of Titans
Bournemouth’s Struggles Against Top-Side Dominance
Manchester City has been on top form this season, with the likes of Erling Haaland leading the charge. On paper, they’re the clear favorites to win this FA Cup quarter-final. However, Bournemouth has a way of pulling off surprises against top teams, and their resilience at the Vitality Stadium could give them a fighting chance.
Best Bet: Justin Kluivert to Commit Three or More Fouls at 5/2
Dean Scoggins, who has been monitoring Bournemouth’s matches closely, points to Justin Kluivert as a player to watch in this fixture. Scoggins notes that Kluivert has been known to get involved not just in attacking plays but also in physical duels. His average of 1.74 fouls per 90 minutes makes the bet on him committing three or more fouls at 5/2 a worthwhile consideration.
Why Kluivert Will Be Key in This Game
Against Manchester City, Kluivert will likely face off with some of City’s most creative players, leading to frequent physical encounters. Whether he’s trying to disrupt City’s rhythm or defend a counter-attack, Kluivert’s involvement in fouls could be pivotal, and betting on him to commit three or more fouls could offer good odds.
Bournemouth’s Win and Both Teams to Score: A Bold Prediction
A Vicious Battle at the Vitality
Toni Afoke’s prediction of Bournemouth to win and both teams to score (16/5) might seem risky given Manchester City’s dominance, but there’s an argument to be made for this bet. Afoke points out that while City will likely score, Bournemouth has a fighting spirit and can exploit City’s vulnerabilities.
Bournemouth has shown that they can make life difficult for top teams, especially in front of their home fans. Against a City side that can sometimes be caught out on the counter, Bournemouth’s pace could be a valuable asset.
Both Teams to Score Market
In this FA Cup tie, both teams scoring is a real possibility. Bournemouth has been effective at home, and their attacking players, such as Philip Billing and Marcus Tavernier, are capable of causing problems for even the best defenses. Meanwhile, Manchester City’s attacking prowess is well known, and they’ll likely find the back of the net at least once in this match.
Marcus Tavernier: A Shooting Threat for Bournemouth
Tavernier’s Recent Form
Sam Rosbottom’s bet on Marcus Tavernier to have three or more shots at 6/5 is based on his impressive recent performances. Tavernier has been one of Bournemouth’s most consistent players in the FA Cup, with 15 shots in his last five matches. With Bournemouth potentially under pressure to score, Tavernier will be one of the primary threats in attack.
Why This Bet Makes Sense
Tavernier’s ability to take shots from distance and in open play makes this bet a solid one. As Bournemouth faces off against Manchester City’s high possession game, there will be opportunities for Tavernier to get into shooting positions, making the over 2.5 shots market a potentially lucrative bet.
Conclusion: Exciting FA Cup Action Ahead
This weekend’s FA Cup action is set to deliver plenty of drama, and the betting markets offer some intriguing opportunities. From Morgan Gibbs-White’s quest to prove himself after his England snub to Bournemouth’s potential to upset Manchester City, these matches promise to be full of surprises. With the expert insights of Dean Scoggins, Sam Rosbottom, and Toni Afoke, there are plenty of value bets to be had.
Whether you’re backing Forest to win on penalties, betting on Kluivert to commit fouls, or taking a punt on Tavernier’s shots, there’s something for every football fan this weekend. Stay tuned, place your bets, and enjoy the action as these teams battle for a place in the FA Cup semifinals.
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